Sinopec releases its first "Outlook Report on China's Hydrogen Energy Industry"
Sinopec has officially released the "China Energy Outlook 2060 (2024 Edition)", "China Hydrogen Industry Outlook Report", and "2024 China Energy and Chemical Industry Development Report". Among them, the "Outlook Report on China's Hydrogen Energy Industry" is the first outlook report on the hydrogen energy field released by Sinopec. The report shows that by 2060, China's hydrogen energy consumption will reach nearly 86 million tons, with an industrial scale of 4.6 trillion yuan. It is expected that by 2060, the hydrogen source structure will undergo a fundamental transformation.
The 2024 Energy and Chemical Industry Development Forum was held simultaneously in Beijing, where experts and scholars from China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Federation, China Center for International Economic Exchanges, Peking University, China Chemical Industry Society and other units conducted in-depth discussions and exchanges on the theme of "Green transformation, High-end development and Innovation for the Future" and major issues such as China's energy and chemical industry transformation and development road under the new situation. Peng Wensheng, Chief Economist of CICC, and Gavin Thompson, Vice Chairman of Energy at Wood Mackenzie, delivered keynote presentations.
The "China Energy Outlook 2060 (2024 edition)" is the second consecutive year that Sinopec has released the medium and long-term energy outlook results. The report shows that China's total primary energy consumption will peak between 2030 and 2035, peaking at about 6.26 billion tons of standard coal, and will fall to 5.7 billion tons of standard coal in 2060. The carbon emissions related to energy activities will peak before 2030, after removing the carbon sequestration part of raw material energy, the peak will be about 10.1 billion tons, and 1.7 billion tons of carbon emissions will still be produced in 2060, which need to be absorbed by CCUS, ecological carbon sinks and other ways. Coal consumption will peak and decline around 2025, and coal will still play the role of "ballast stone" in China's energy security in the next decade. Oil consumption will enter the final stage of growth, reaching a peak of about 800 million tons before 2027, and the peak plateau period will be shortened to 3-5 years. Natural gas consumption is growing steadily and will peak around 2040 at about 610 billion cubic meters. The rapid development of non-fossil energy supply is becoming the main body of China's energy system increment, and will become the main body of China's energy supply around 2045.
Sinopec released the "China Hydrogen Energy Industry Outlook Report" for the first time, and the research results will provide new ideas and new perspectives for China's hydrogen energy industry to scientifically plan the transformation path and achieve high-quality development. The report shows that in 2060, the scale of hydrogen energy consumption in China will reach nearly 86 million tons, and the industrial scale will be 4.6 trillion yuan. The low-carbon hydrogen production on the supply side and the diversified application on the consumption side will become the two major characteristics of the development of hydrogen energy industry. It is expected that in 2060, the proportion of non-fossil energy in the energy use structure of China's special hydrogen production will increase from 1% in 2022 to 93%, of which wind and solar energy will account for 2/3 of hydrogen production, and the hydrogen source structure will undergo a fundamental change; The consumption structure of hydrogen energy application will also change greatly.
The Report on the Development of China's Energy and Chemical Industry in 2024 believes that the energy and chemical industry in 2024 should make overall plans to promote high-quality development and high-level safety. We need to focus on conserving, intensive, circular and efficient use of resources, actively yet prudently promote peaking carbon neutrality, accelerate energy conservation, and expand renewable energy consumption. The global energy supply and demand map has changed, and the trade flow has gradually shifted to the "Eastern and Western Hemisphere"; Maintaining energy security and sustainable development will be the major concern of the energy industry in the future. International oil prices are expected to remain medium-high, although the average is slightly down, but still higher than the average level of the past five years, we must beware of major events to the impact of the market; Eurasian gas demand will drive infrastructure construction, and the gas price center is expected to be roughly the same as in 2023; China's primary energy demand will increase by 2.7%, the oil and gas industry should increase exploration and development, write a new chapter in the energy rice bowl, and actively promote the integrated development of oil fields and new energy. Affected by the rapid growth of new energy vehicles and other factors, China's oil product demand will enter a low growth stage in 2024, with a growth rate of only 1.7%; Mass chemical production capacity concentrated release, in 2024 the petrochemical industry operating pressure is still not reduced, new chemical materials as a strategic emerging industry support, will continue to vigorously develop.
The event is hosted by Sinopec Economic and Technological Research Institute Co., LTD and Sinopec Consulting Co., LTD. More than 280 experts from national ministries, industry associations, petrochemical, energy and power, universities, scientific research institutions, investment institutions and other representatives attended the conference and forum. The forum was also live broadcast through the network platform, and a total of more than 100,000 people watched the conference and forum online.
